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| #207833 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:25 AM 16.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS NOW OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...WITH LITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE STORM PRODUCED A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT OVER THE WATER SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS BURST WAS AT THE FAR END OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY AROUND 18Z TO PROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13. FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN. THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR FAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA. THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THUS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HR. EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT. WHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR. THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON THE STORM STRUCTURE. ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER. ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 19.0N 73.7W 40 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 19.3N 75.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 77.5W 50 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 79.3W 55 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 22.7N 80.6W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1200Z 26.0N 82.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 29.5N 82.5W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 21/1200Z 32.5N 83.0W 35 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
