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| #207952 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 16.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN FAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT. ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE CENTER MOVES...AND IF FAY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING. IF FAY REMAINS OVER WATER IT COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE NO LONGER INDICATING AN AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOST RECENT RUN. FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM CUBAN RADARS INDICATE THAT FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. FAY IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. ON THIS TRACK...FAY SHOULD BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST FLORIDA COAST. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SPREAD BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS BRINGING FAY OVER FLORIDA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ON THIS TRACK...WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.4N 76.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 78.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.5N 80.0W 55 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 19/0000Z 24.5N 82.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 27.8N 82.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 31.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/0000Z 34.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
