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| #207981 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 17.Aug.2008) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 ...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. AT 5 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF NORTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI SPIRITUS EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO...AND ALSO FOR CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EEFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... JAMAICA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125 MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 445 MILES...715 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY. FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TODAY...CROSS CENTRAL CUBA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FAY COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FAY CROSSES CUBA...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE NORTHERN CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER GRAND CAYMAN AND OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. RAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER HAITI TODAY. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...19.7 N...77.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME |
