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| #207983 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 17.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 THE CENTER OF FAY IS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA TO BE ACCESSIBLE TO THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SO THERE ARE NO DIRECT MEASUREMENTS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE OR PRECISE POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE CENTER. HOWEVER...CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE RIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS OF THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE DIPPING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH TURNS FAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING IT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO SHOW A PATH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS AND UKMET...TURN FAY NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS LATTER SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE IS IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDES NEAR THE CENTER SUGGEST THAT THE PRESSURE HAS NOT YET CHANGED MUCH. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. FAY IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW IT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 19.7N 77.3W 45 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 20.7N 78.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 22.2N 80.6W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/1800Z 23.7N 81.6W 50 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 25.4N 82.1W 60 KT 72HR VT 20/0600Z 29.0N 82.5W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 21/0600Z 32.0N 82.5W 35 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 22/0600Z 35.5N 82.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME |
