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| #208197 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:53 AM 18.Aug.2008) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 800 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS FAY IS A LITTLE STRONGER... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO TARPON SPRINGS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO SEBASTIAN INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA EASTWARD TO SANCTI SPIRITUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF CUBA FROM CAMAGUEY WESTWARD. AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR JUST NORTHEAST OF VARADERO CUBA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 80 MILES...125 KM...EAST OF HAVANA CUBA AND ABOUT 100 MILES...160 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THE CENTER OF FAY SHOULD BE EMERGING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...100 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER OF FAY MOVES OVER WATER. FAY IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER MUCH OF CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. STORM TIDES ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...23.2 N...81.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/FRANKLIN |
