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| #208788 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 20.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008 TROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY REACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE CANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A TIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND ALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF 80W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING SMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO HIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW AFTER 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 28.2N 80.6W 45 KT...JUST INLAND 12HR VT 20/1800Z 28.8N 80.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 29.3N 80.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 29.6N 81.5W 50 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 22/0600Z 30.0N 82.5W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 84.1W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 24/0600Z 30.7N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 88.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
