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| #209607 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 22.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008 THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. REGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/2100Z 29.8N 83.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 23/0600Z 29.9N 84.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 23/1800Z 30.2N 85.9W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0600Z 30.5N 87.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 24/1800Z 31.0N 89.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 90.0W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 26/1800Z 31.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 27/1800Z 32.0N 91.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
