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| #209952 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 23.Aug.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 SURFACE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...THE CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW...IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 30.6N 86.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 30.9N 87.5W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 24/1800Z 31.2N 89.7W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 25/0600Z 31.0N 91.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 25/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 26/1800Z 31.0N 91.0W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 27/1800Z 32.5N 90.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z 34.5N 89.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
