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#211184 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 28.Aug.2008)
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
1500 UTC THU AUG 28 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF GUSTAV.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 76.1W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 76.1W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N 77.1W...NEAR S COAST OF JAMAICA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 79.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 19.1N 80.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.2N 82.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.0N 89.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.5N 91.0W...NEAR COAST OF LOUISIANA
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB