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| #211499 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 PM 29.Aug.2008) TCPAT2 BULLETIN HURRICANE GUSTAV ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008 ...GUSTAV BECOMES A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO DRY TORTUGAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE WESTERN CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE LA HABANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...AND FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...CIENFUEGOS...VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...AND GRANMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 160 KM...EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 380 MILES...610 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT...OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA ON SATURDAY...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH 8 TO 13 FEET POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...INCLUDING ISLA DE JUVENTUD. GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN CUBA. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...19.2 N...79.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
