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| #211728 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:33 PM 30.Aug.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008 SO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV. YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE CONVEYED THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE MORE THAN WHAT WE HAD IN MIND IN SUCH A SHORT TIME. THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...HAVING BEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND VALUE IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF 141 KT...SINCE THE 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE USUALLY WORKS RATHER WELL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12...RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. NO CHANGES TO THE 1500 UTC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 96 HOURS. GUSTAV COULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OVER WATER...AND ONE CANNOT RULE OUT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BEFORE CROSSING CUBA. THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 140 KT...CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH...FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1800Z 21.6N 82.5W 125 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 83.5W 135 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA 24HR VT 31/1200Z 24.3N 85.4W 140 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.3W 135 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 27.8N 89.2W 125 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 30.5N 92.5W 80 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 03/1200Z 31.5N 94.0W 50 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 04/1200Z 32.0N 95.5W 30 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER KNABB |
