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| #212482 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:48 PM 01.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED...CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS BASIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM IS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 40.6W 45 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.0N 42.8W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 45.5W 60 KT 36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 48.5W 70 KT 48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 51.5W 75 KT 72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 58.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 64.0W 80 KT 120HR VT 06/1800Z 22.0N 69.5W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
