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| #212488 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 PM 01.Sep.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008 500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008 THE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST NORTH OF LAFAYETTE. WSR-88D DATA FROM SLIDELL AND LAKE CHARLES SHOW THAT THE EYE SEEN AT LANDFALL HAS FILLED AND BEEN REPLACED BY A SOLID RAIN MASS NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT DOPPLER WINDS OF 90-100 KT ALOFT SUGGESTS THERE SURFACE WINDS ARE PROBABLY NEAR 70 KT. GUSTAV IS NOW FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT IT SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/14. GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HR...WITH MORE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOWN THEREAFTER AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS. STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS GUSTAV KEEPS A VIABLE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/2100Z 30.4N 92.0W 70 KT 12HR VT 02/0600Z 31.2N 93.2W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 02/1800Z 32.1N 94.3W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 03/0600Z 32.6N 94.9W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 03/1800Z 33.0N 95.4W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 04/1800Z 34.0N 95.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 05/1800Z 35.0N 95.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 06/1800Z 36.0N 94.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
