Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #213083 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 AM 03.Sep.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008 ALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE THIS EVENING...DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING BEYOND THE 36 PERIOD. IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11...WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING JOSEPHINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH ONE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE UKMET AND THE GFS TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO A SHALLOW DEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL BLEND...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS AND THE SUPER ENSEMBLE ARE INDICATING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN A DEEPER LAYER FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CLUSTER SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 13.7N 27.5W 50 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 14.2N 29.4W 55 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 31.9W 60 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 15.8N 34.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 16.6N 36.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 06/0600Z 18.0N 41.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 45.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 08/0600Z 22.5N 50.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH |
