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| #213608 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 04.Sep.2008) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 2100 UTC THU SEP 04 2008 INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 58.2W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 55SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 120SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 58.2W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 57.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 23.9N 60.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.7N 62.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.2N 65.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 75NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.7N 67.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...150NE 125SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 25.5N 79.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 58.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE |
