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| #213823 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 05.Sep.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008 STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON JOSEPHINE THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY NEAR THE SOUTH EDGE OF A BLOW-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 1000Z. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS BECOME MUCH FARTHER SEPARATED AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. ACCORDINGLY... DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN TANDEM WITH JOSEPHINE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO RESTRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A 12 HOUR MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/7...BUT IT HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STEERED BY A BUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 15.8N 34.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 16.2N 35.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.0N 37.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.0N 39.4W 35 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.2N 41.5W 35 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 45.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.5N 48.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.5N 51.0W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE |
