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| #213920 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 PM 05.Sep.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102008 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008 JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WEST IN TANDEM WITH THE STORM. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE JOSEPHINE MAY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE SCENARIOS HOLDING JOSEPHINE STEADY STATE. JOSEPHINE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/2100Z 16.0N 35.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 06/0600Z 16.4N 36.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 06/1800Z 17.3N 37.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 07/0600Z 18.5N 39.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 07/1800Z 19.7N 41.9W 30 KT 72HR VT 08/1800Z 22.0N 45.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 48.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 10/1800Z 26.0N 51.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE |
