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| #214170 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:41 AM 06.Sep.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008 THE CENTER OF HANNA IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINA...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A CONVECTIVE OVERCAST JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND RADAR DATA SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINBANDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THERE ARE NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 45 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN AREAS NOT CURRENTLY SAMPLED. WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 025/22. HANNA IS ROUNDING THE END OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO...AND NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 36.6N 77.4W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 39.7N 74.7W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/1200Z 43.5N 68.4W 45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/0000Z 46.8N 60.1W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/1200Z 49.0N 51.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1200Z 51.0N 34.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1200Z 55.0N 19.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1200Z 59.0N 10.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
