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| #214176 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 AM 06.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008 IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW. IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING. THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND. BY DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY WARM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT 96 AND 120 HR. GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE. IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/1500Z 21.9N 68.8W 95 KT 12HR VT 07/0000Z 21.4N 70.4W 95 KT 24HR VT 07/1200Z 21.2N 72.9W 100 KT 36HR VT 08/0000Z 21.2N 75.4W 105 KT 48HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 77.6W 95 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W 80 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 84.0W 90 KT 120HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 86.0W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN |
