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| #214261 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 PM 06.Sep.2008) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082008 500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008 THE CENTER OF HANNA IS MOVING OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA... WITH RADAR DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINBANDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS DECREASING...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 994 MB. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN 35-40 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. SO...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT ON THE PREMISE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED. AS BEFORE...WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 12-24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/23. HANNA IS ENTERING THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR..FOLLOWED BY A RAPID EASTWARD MOTION. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME DECELERATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 96 HR. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 38.5N 75.8W 45 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 07/0600Z 41.7N 71.8W 45 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/1800Z 45.3N 64.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 08/0600Z 48.3N 56.0W 45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 08/1800Z 49.6N 47.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 09/1800Z 51.5N 31.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 10/1800Z 56.0N 17.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/1800Z 60.0N 10.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
