Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 1995Hurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995
The Atlantic is quiet
|
Show Selection: |
| #214461 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 07.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT. A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD BE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL. HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS...EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT. ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER. IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. SINCE THE WATERS OVER THE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH... RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. IKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13. IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA G-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/1500Z 21.0N 73.4W 115 KT 12HR VT 08/0000Z 20.9N 75.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 08/1200Z 21.4N 77.6W 85 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 09/0000Z 22.2N 79.9W 70 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 81.8W 65 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 10/1200Z 24.5N 85.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 11/1200Z 26.0N 87.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 12/1200Z 27.0N 90.5W 100 KT $$ FORECASTER RHOME |
