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| #214798 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 PM 08.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008 ...IKE CONTINUES TO HUG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...BANDS OF HEAVY SQUALLS NEARING THE FLORIDA KEYS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES ...40 KM...SOUTHEAST OF PLAYA GIRON ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WEST- CENTRAL CUBA AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS WESTERN CUBA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY EVENING OR TUESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHEN IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB...28.56 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER JAMAICA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND ON TUESDAY. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...21.8 N...80.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG |
