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| #214854 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 09.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 ...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS REPORTED IN HAVANA... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNINGS EAST OF THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN. INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IKE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IKE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND SOUTH COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THEN MOVE OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER WESTERN CUBA TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WHEN IKE REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM. THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE AT CASABLANCA HAVANA RECENTLY MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 75 MPH...120 KM/HR. KEY WEST RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 54 MPH...87 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS EAST OF IKE ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...22.0 N...82.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
