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| #215019 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:01 PM 09.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 34A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 ...IKE CROSSING WESTERN CUBA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CENTER OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A GUST TO 118 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED AT PASO REAL IN PINAR DEL RIO. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AS IKE CROSSES WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 MILES...315 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE CENTER OF IKE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE SWELLS COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...22.7 N...83.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
