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| #215092 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:03 PM 09.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 IKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. REPORTS FROM THE PLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR LARGER. IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT NEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND UKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE GULF. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT ALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 22.9N 83.8W 65 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 23.5N 85.1W 70 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 24.3N 86.6W 90 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 24.9N 88.4W 100 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 25.3N 90.6W 105 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 26.5N 95.0W 100 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 29.5N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 14/1800Z 33.6N 98.0W 30 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
