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| #215172 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 09.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008 THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT. IKE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT REACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE OF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR TEXAS. GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS. THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR 300/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THERE IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND FORWARD SPEED. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. AGAIN...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 23.2N 84.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 23.9N 85.5W 75 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 25.2N 89.0W 100 KT 48HR VT 12/0000Z 25.6N 91.1W 105 KT 72HR VT 13/0000Z 27.5N 95.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 14/0000Z 30.5N 98.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 15/0000Z 35.0N 97.0W 25 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG |
