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| #215395 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 PM 10.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 400 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008 ...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST... AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 4 PM CDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAMERON WESTWARD TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF KEY WEST TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 720 MILES...1155 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...590 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AND A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COASTS OF CUBA AND IN THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT WILL BE INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS IKE APPROACHES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.5 N...86.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
