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| #215602 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 11.Sep.2008) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 1500 UTC THU SEP 11 2008 AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 88.4W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW. 34 KT.......230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 240SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 88.4W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.9N 90.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW. 34 KT...230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.6N 92.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW. 34 KT...230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.8N 94.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW. 34 KT...230NE 240SE 150SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 95.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...120NE 125SE 75SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 240SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.5N 94.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 38.0N 85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 88.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
