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| #215687 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 11.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 43 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 400 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008 ...IKE HEADED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...820 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS. IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...89.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
