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| #215962 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 12.Sep.2008) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008 IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON ISLAND. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.7N 93.5W 90 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 95 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W 65 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
