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| #216018 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:01 PM 12.Sep.2008) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008 800 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008 ...IKE`S OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES ...155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BEAUMONT TEXAS. IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY MORNING AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS... ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS. IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS MEASURED AT A NOAA BUOY JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE IT STOPPED REPORTING. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL. IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. REPEATING THE 800 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...94.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB. THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
