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| #218884 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 26.Sep.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008 1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE BETWEEN 992 AND 995 MB AND A SPOT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING KYLE WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AS KYLE CROSSES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 14 KNOTS. KYLE IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE EAST AND A STRONG DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN FAVORS A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS KYLE WELL EAST OF NEW ENGLAND...INTERESTS IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE. THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD DEFINITELY BE MORE ON GUARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0300Z 29.4N 68.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 27/1200Z 31.5N 69.0W 65 KT 24HR VT 28/0000Z 34.8N 69.0W 65 KT 36HR VT 28/1200Z 38.5N 68.0W 65 KT 48HR VT 29/0000Z 42.5N 66.7W 60 KT 72HR VT 30/0000Z 49.0N 63.5W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
