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| #219158 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 28.Sep.2008) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008 1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KYLE IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A LESS TROPICAL-LOOKING SYSTEM. THE CLOUD BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER LOOKS SOMEWHAT FRONTAL...SO KYLE IS PROBABLY STARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...IN PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z. DATA BUOYS 44011 AND 44024 ARE VERY NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OF KYLE...AND THESE PLATFORMS SHOULD BE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY. NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 15 DEG C WATERS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL LARGELY ELIMINATE THE OCEANIC ENERGY SOURCE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WELL...WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE BECOMING NEGLIGIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO. IN FACT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... 020/21...IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN. IF THE CURRENT TREND IN THE TRACK OF KYLE CONTINUES...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAINE COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/1500Z 40.4N 67.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 29/0000Z 43.3N 66.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 29/1200Z 46.3N 64.6W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/0000Z 48.5N 63.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 30/1200Z 50.0N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 01/1200Z 51.5N 63.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE |
