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| #219204 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 28.Sep.2008) TCDAT1 HURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112008 500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008 KYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...AND AN ASYMMETRIC OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. EARLIER TODAY...AT ABOUT 1600 UTC...NOAA DATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A GUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS. THE BUOY ALSO REPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE ANEMOMETER...AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. THE BUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31 KT...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB. THESE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS...KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT HURRICANE INTENSITY. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE... AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO. CONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE. INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22. IN SPITE OF THE RECENT ACCELERATION...THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/2100Z 42.7N 66.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 29/0600Z 45.1N 64.7W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 24HR VT 29/1800Z 47.7N 63.3W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 30/0600Z 49.5N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 48HR VT 30/1800Z 50.5N 63.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND 72HR VT 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
