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| #221935 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 13.Oct.2008) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 2100 UTC MON OCT 13 2008 AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO. AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRISTISH VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.9W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.9W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 69.9W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 14.9N 69.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 68.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.7N 66.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 20.0N 63.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 23.5N 59.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 27.5N 56.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 69.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
