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| #221988 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 13.Oct.2008) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142008 1100 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008 NANA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THUS IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE A LITTLE LONGER. STILL...WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION INDICATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS NOT ABATED. NANA IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NANA HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/10. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...DISSIPATES IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. SINCE NANA'S TRACK HINGES ON HOW LONG IT CAN PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 17.7N 41.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 18.4N 42.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 15/0000Z 19.3N 44.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 15/1200Z 20.4N 45.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME |
