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| #222027 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 AM 14.Oct.2008) TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO. INTERESTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 69.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 69.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.6N 68.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.6N 67.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N 65.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 25SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N 62.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N 59.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N 57.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 69.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH |
