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| #222058 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:43 AM 14.Oct.2008) TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 800 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008 ...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO. INTERESTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST OR ABOUT 360 MILES...580 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 140 MILES...225 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TODAY... WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION MAY PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS. REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N...69.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
