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| #222138 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 14.Oct.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008 CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT HAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS. FOR THE TIME BEING...WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE MORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. REGARDLESS... FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND NO MORE THAN AROUND 25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS...WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING. A TRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WHILE A TRACK SOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A LITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER...THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 15.7N 83.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.9N 84.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.1N 85.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.1N 86.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 88.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 90.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN |
