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| #222188 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 PM 14.Oct.2008) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008 ...DEPRESSION PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA WESTWARD TO LIMON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITION ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS WEST OF THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY TO THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...150 KM...NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LONG AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS OFFSHORE...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS... BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...16.2 N...83.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK |
