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| #222222 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 15.Oct.2008) TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008 ...DEPRESSION HUGGING THE COAST OF HONDURAS... AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF GUATEMALA AND FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...EAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM...EAST OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER HONDURAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...NORTHERN HONDURAS... BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...16.0 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH |
