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| #222223 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 AM 15.Oct.2008) TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 0900 UTC WED OCT 15 2008 AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE HONDURAS COAST FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA/HONDURAS BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF GUATEMALA AND FOR SOUTHERN BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE GUATEMALA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.2W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.2W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.9N 87.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.7N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.5N 91.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 84.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH |
