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| #222226 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 15.Oct.2008) TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162008 500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008 THE DEPRESSION BASICALLY CONSISTS OF TWO CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT ARE RATHER DISTANT FROM THE APPARENT CENTER. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER IS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE HONDURAS COAST. THE SYSTEM HAS EFFECTIVELY AVOIDED BOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT OVERNIGHT...AND SINCE THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVEN'T CHANGED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT. AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM DOESN'T MOVE OVER LAND...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPEND LESS TIME OVER WATER. HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION WERE TO TAKE A TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT MAY NEVER BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ALL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5. A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE FOR THE ENSUING NHC FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 16.0N 84.2W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 85.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.0N 86.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 15.9N 87.6W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 15.7N 89.1W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 91.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH |
