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| #222345 (Received by flhurricane at: 7:52 PM 15.Oct.2008) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 800 PM AST WED OCT 15 2008 ...OMAR BECOMES CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE VIRGIN AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO...AND ALSO FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE..WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ST. CROIX AND ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH... 170 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. ALSO... STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GUAJIRA PENINSULA. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. IN ADDITION... OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES. REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...16.6 N...65.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN |
