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| #222405 (Received by flhurricane at: 2:58 AM 16.Oct.2008) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE OMAR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11B NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 300 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008 ...OMAR RACING NORTHEASTWARD...WINDS INCREASED TO 125 MPH.... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND ANGUILLA. AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND MONTSERRAT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUADELOUPE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 300 AM AST...0700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OMAR WAS LOCATED BY RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.8 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES..90 KM... NORTHWEST OF ST. MARTIN. OMAR IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF OMAR WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH... 205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OMAR IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM. ST. MAARTEN RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH...91 KM/HR. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER WAS 959 MB...28.32 INCHES. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES...WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR PUERTO RICO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF OMAR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. IN ADDITION...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEST- AND SOUTH-FACING COASTS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES. REPEATING THE 100 AM AST POSITION...18.5 N...63.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM AST. $$ |
