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| #222433 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 16.Oct.2008) TCDAT5 HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132 AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS EARLIER. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED AND HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR OMAR TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF OMAR WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CROSSED THE AREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ST. MAARTEN AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...OR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. OMAR HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS AND SOON WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ACCELERATION AND A CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 19.1N 63.2W 110 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 21.7N 61.0W 110 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 26.0N 58.5W 100 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 30.0N 55.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 33.5N 52.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 37.0N 45.0W 65 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 40.0N 37.0W 55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 21/0600Z 42.0N 25.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
