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| #222600 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:40 AM 17.Oct.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 500 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO WIND SHEAR. ON THE CONTRARY... DATA FROM A 0545 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND DATA FROM ASCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS HEADING TOWARD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SAME WEAKENING RATE AS THE SHIPS MODEL. OMAR SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR LESS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE INITIAL MOTION AND OMAR IS STILL HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS. OMAR SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER...A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SINCE THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN FORCING OMAR TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS WEAKENING RESULTING IN LIGHTER STEERING CURRENTS. BASICALLY....ALL TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...MODEL THE SPREAD INCREASES BUT THEY ALL BRING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0900Z 26.0N 56.4W 50 KT 12HR VT 17/1800Z 28.7N 54.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 18/0600Z 31.0N 52.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 18/1800Z 33.0N 50.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 19/0600Z 35.0N 48.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 20/0600Z 38.5N 42.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 21/0600Z 40.0N 35.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 22/0600Z 40.0N 28.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
