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| #222805 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 18.Oct.2008) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008 OMAR HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE A QUIKSCAT AND AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BECAUSE OMAR HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...IT DOES NOT MEET THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS NOW A REMNANT LOW . THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. NOW THAT OMAR IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OMAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 33.4N 50.7W 35 KT...REMNANT LOW 12HR VT 19/0000Z 34.7N 48.9W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 19/1200Z 36.5N 46.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 20/0000Z 37.5N 43.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/1200Z 38.0N 41.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/1200Z 39.0N 38.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/1200Z 41.0N 36.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA |
