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| #225987 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:40 PM 06.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 400 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE STORM AND HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB WINDS OF 61 KT...SFMR-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS OF 57 KT...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE SYSTEM HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS. RAPID STRENGTHENING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IF PALOMA DEVELOPS AN EYE. OVER THE WEEKEND...A COMBINATION OF HIGH SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS COULD CAUSE A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE STORM. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL MODEL STILL FORECASTS THE STORM TO BE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY. THE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRED A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 005/7. DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF PALOMA SHOULD STEER THE STORM NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE RELOCATION AND LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE CLUSTER OF MODELS...COMPRISED OF THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDL/BAMD... TAKES THE STORM QUICKLY ACROSS CUBA AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ANOTHER RELIABLE SET OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS/UKMET/GFDN/ECMWF...ARE MUCH SLOWER AND EITHER LOOP THE SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN OR TEAR IT APART BEFORE REACHING CUBA. SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING AT A FASTER PACE THAN ANTICIPATED AND IS STRONGER...THE NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SPEEDY SOLUTION. NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RADIUM OF MAXIMUM WINDS IN A FEW HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/2100Z 16.3N 81.8W 55 KT 12HR VT 07/0600Z 17.2N 81.9W 65 KT 24HR VT 07/1800Z 18.3N 82.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 08/0600Z 19.3N 81.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 08/1800Z 20.0N 80.6W 90 KT 72HR VT 09/1800Z 21.5N 78.5W 70 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 10/1800Z 23.5N 75.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 11/1800Z 26.5N 72.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH |
