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| #226217 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:03 PM 07.Nov.2008) TCDAT2 HURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172008 1000 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008 PALOMA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...HAVING STRENGTHENED 15 KT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND 70 KT IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON PASS THROUGH THE EYE INDICATED A SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 964 MB...700 MB PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT...AND DROPSONDE MEASUREMENT EQUATING TO A 101 KT SURFACE WIND...AND A SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND OF 101 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THESE DATA EASILY SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE. THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT AND HAS BECOME WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/06 KT. PALOMA HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. AS PALOMA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...A CONTINUED NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK OUT TO THAT TIME AND BEYOND IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A BIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL SUITE WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS MODELS RAPIDLY WEAKENING PALOMA AND TURNING IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF CUBA BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS MOVE A SOMEWHAT STRONGER CYCLONE ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND REPORTS FROM RECON AIRCRAFT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF SOLUTIONS...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. BY 72 HOURS...EVEN IF PALOMA REMAINS VERTICALLY INTACT...THE HURRICANE'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE...INDUCING RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS. SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO AFFECT PALOMA UNTIL AROUND 12 HOURS...SO THERE IS STILL A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT REACHES LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DO NOT MAKE PALOMA A 105-KT HURRICANE UNTIL 24-36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH IT IS ALREADY OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THOSE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PALOMA AT THOSE TIME PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0300Z 19.1N 80.9W 100 KT 12HR VT 08/1200Z 19.8N 80.3W 100 KT 24HR VT 09/0000Z 20.5N 79.2W 90 KT 36HR VT 09/1200Z 21.2N 78.0W 70 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 10/0000Z 21.7N 77.1W 50 KT 72HR VT 11/0000Z 22.4N 76.2W 40 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 12/0000Z 23.0N 76.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 13/0000Z 23.5N 76.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART |
